Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Fuels Villa's Improbable Title Charge
Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the source of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.