Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
